Institutions Disrupt BTC Cycle After 2024 Halving

Bitcoin Climbs 33% Since Halving Institutional Buyers Shift the Game

One year after the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is up more than 33%, showing impressive strength despite a rocky global environment. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, and fears of macroeconomic instability, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is fueling renewed optimism.

At the heart of this surge lies not just scarcity economics but also a growing wave of institutional adoption and the mainstreaming of Bitcoin ETFs, which many analysts say have accelerated the typical four-year halving cycle.

Let’s break it down.

What Happened in the 2024 Halving?

In April 2024, the Bitcoin network underwent its fourth halving event, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This change, hardcoded into Bitcoin's design, ensures decreasing issuance over time cementing its identity as a scarce digital asset.

Historically, halving events are followed by multi-month bull runs. But this time, something feels different.

Bitcoin has already surged over 33% since that April 2024 cut, trading around $87,488 today according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro. Notably, this price resilience has occurred despite escalating global trade tensions, hawkish monetary policies, and broader risk-off investor sentiment.

So, why the upside?

Institutions May Be Shortening Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at Brickken, believes the traditional four-year cycle is evolving.

“Institutional investment from firms like Strategy (MicroStrategy) and Tether, alongside ETFs, is reshaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory,” said Cardozo.

He added that while typical cycle expectations placed a potential price bottom in Q3 2025 and a peak around mid-2026, the influx of liquidity and market maturity could move things much faster.

This echoes broader industry sentiment that more frequent institutional buying and liquid trading venues are injecting unprecedented levels of capital into the ecosystem.

• "Even though Bitcoin’s showing resilience, I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for a stronger green light before they jump in," Cardozo noted.

Could Fed Rate Cuts Be a Game-Changer?

Cardozo also pointed out that macro policy still heavily influences Bitcoin’s next leg up.

If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as many economists are forecasting for May or June it could flood the system with more liquidity, giving Bitcoin another leg higher.

Lower rates typically encourage risk-on behavior across global financial markets. For Bitcoin, that could mean more appetite from both institutional and retail investors.

ETFs Are Fueling the Next Bull Run

According to Vugar Usi Zade, COO of Bitget Exchange, Bitcoin ETFs are playing a huge role in altering market dynamics.

He believes the rising adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, is giving investors regulated, seamless access to the asset thereby reducing friction and increasing capital inflows.

• “With growing scarcity triggered by the halving, Bitcoin will likely retest it's all-time high if it breaches the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks,” said Usi Zade.

But he cautioned that the halving alone doesn’t guarantee an immediate spike. Instead, it lays the foundation for upward movement as long as demand continues to rise.

This aligns with the views of firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, whose entry into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 added credibility and trust for hesitant investors.

Bitcoin’s Supply Is Shrinking But Demand is Surging

Bitcoin’s scarcity model is its greatest strength and the 2024 halving has made this even more evident.

• New BTC issuance per block is now just 3.125 BTC, down from 6.25 BTC. 
• Annual supply growth is now under 1.7%, below gold’s inflation rate. 
• Long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting on over 70% of the circulating supply, per Glassnode. 

Meanwhile, ETFs and corporate treasuries are gobbling up more BTC than miners can produce.

This supply-demand imbalance could be the recipe for another Bitcoin supercycle, especially if macro conditions remain favorable.

Global Trade Wars: A Double-Edged Sword?

Interestingly, the current US-China tariff war may also be helping Bitcoin’s narrative. As fiat currencies get caught in geopolitical crossfire, many investors view Bitcoin as a hedge similar to gold.

Growing tensions, such as the tariff escalations on tech and semiconductor equipment, may lead more capital to flow into decentralized, politically neutral assets like Bitcoin.

Related reading: Why Bitcoin behaves like digital gold during macro crises

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin has gained over 33% since the 2024 halving, supported by reduced supply, institutional buying, and optimism surrounding potential Fed rate cuts. ETFs and large corporate players like Strategy are speeding up what was once a predictable four-year cycle.

As geopolitical tensions and trade wars dominate headlines, Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign asset continues to shine. If current trends hold and Bitcoin breaks the $90,000 mark this could be the beginning of another historic bull run.

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