Lyn Alden Revises Bitcoin Target Amid Trade War Jitters

Lyn Alden Cuts Bitcoin Forecast After Trump’s Tariff Shock, but Eyes Liquidity Surge for Rebound

Bitcoin’s 2025 price outlook just got a reality check from macroeconomist Lyn Alden and tariffs are to blame.

In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast hosted by Natalie Brunell, Alden shared her revised outlook on Bitcoin. While she still expects BTC to end 2025 above its current level of around $85,000, her forecast has been trimmed due to the economic uncertainty triggered by former President Donald Trump's February tariff announcement.

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden noted, calling it a notable setback for what could have been an even more bullish year for Bitcoin.

 

What Could Push Bitcoin Higher? Liquidity

Despite the downward revision, Alden remains cautiously optimistic. She believes a “massive liquidity unlock” could act as the catalyst that propels Bitcoin past $100,000 before the year wraps.

That type of event could include major central bank actions for instance, if the U.S. Federal Reserve is forced to implement quantitative easing or yield curve control, especially in a scenario where the U.S. bond market experiences significant strain.

This aligns with Alden’s broader thesis that Bitcoin functions as a global liquidity barometer. Her earlier research found that Bitcoin moves in the same direction as global M2 money supply in 83% of 12-month periods more than S&P 500, gold, or the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT).

Why Bitcoin’s 24/7 Market Changes the Game

Another key point Alden raised is that Bitcoin’s round-the-clock market activity makes it more sensitive to global financial stress but also gives it a unique edge.

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she explained.

This constant liquidity makes Bitcoin more volatile but also more flexible capable of reacting faster to macroeconomic shocks than traditional assets limited by stock market hours.

Could Bitcoin Decouple From Nasdaq?

Interestingly, Alden also pointed out that Bitcoin can diverge from the Nasdaq 100 particularly during periods where tech stock margins are hit, but global liquidity remains intact.

She compares this potential environment to the years between 2003 and 2007. That period saw the U.S. dollar weaken, with capital flowing into emerging markets, commodities, and gold while U.S. stocks lagged behind.

“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she added.

 

This scenario could work in Bitcoin’s favor, especially if risk appetite shifts globally and alternative stores of value attract more capital.

Bitcoin’s Current Position

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading just under $85,000, having dipped slightly down around 0.95% over the past 30 days.

Alden acknowledges short-term challenges, especially with broader financial market downswings. But if liquidity expands and risk-on sentiment returns, she sees a strong path for Bitcoin one that potentially reclaims the six-figure level.

Final Thoughts

Lyn Alden’s outlook reminds us that Bitcoin doesn’t move in a vacuum. Tariffs, macro liquidity, central bank actions, and even trading hours all play a role in shaping its path. While the recent “tariff kerfuffle” may have capped some of Bitcoin’s upside for now, Alden’s analysis shows there’s still room for optimism especially if liquidity returns to the global system.

As we move through 2025, all eyes will be on how policymakers, markets, and institutions react. For Bitcoin, the next big move may not come from the crypto world at all but from the macro stage.

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