Nvidia Stock Falls as Export Curbs Loom Is It Time to Sell ?

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has found itself at the epicenter of global trade tensions, with volatility surging as tariff headlines dominate investor sentiment. The AI chip giant, once rallying on a 90-day tariff pause, is now grappling with looming export curbs, geopolitical uncertainty, and a potential $5.5 billion hit in Q1.

While Trump’s trade maneuvering offered brief relief particularly for tech and semiconductor imports markets remain jittery ahead of new policy announcements.

Nvidia Stock: From Rally to Reversal

• Trump later hiked tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% in retaliation for Beijing’s 84% duties 
• Though semiconductor products were initially exempt, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that sector-specific tariffs are coming within a month 

Earlier this month, Nvidia shares soared 19% after President Trump temporarily lifted tariffs on electronics like smartphones and computers. But that relief didn’t last long.

🔗 What Are Semiconductor Tariffs?  Investopedia
🔗 Nvidia Stock Profile – Yahoo Finance

Nvidia’s U.S. Manufacturing Pivot

In response, Nvidia is going all-in on American soil.

According to the company blog:

• Nvidia is building over 1 million square feet of U.S. manufacturing space 
• Blackwell chips will be produced in Arizona, while AI supercomputers will be assembled in Texas 
• Mass production is set to begin in 12–15 months 

This shift is part of Nvidia’s strategy to de-risk from China and position itself in line with national security guidelines.

Export Licenses and the $5.5 Billion Question

Nvidia disclosed in an SEC filing that it expects a $5.5 billion charge related to restricted exports of its H20 AI chips, which may now require U.S. government approval to sell to companies in China.

However, analysts remain skeptical:

• The license approval process is uncertain 
• Multiple Chinese firms have already been added to an export blacklist 

This could be a significant headwind for Q1 results, despite Nvidia’s otherwise solid performance.

What the Charts Say: Death Cross Forms

According to IBD MarketSurge:

• Nvidia’s 200-day moving average has now crossed above its 50-day a technical signal known as a "death cross" 
• The relative strength line, which compares NVDA to the S&P 500, is also in decline 

These indicators hint at weakening momentum despite recent highs.

Peer Watch: How Other Chipmakers Are Doing

• Broadcom (AVGO) posted 77% AI revenue growth YoY, hitting $4.1 billion 
• Oracle (ORCL) reported a $130B order backlog, excluding AI mega-contract Stargate 
• Marvell (MRVL) gave a slight earnings beat with raised guidance 
• Analysts believe custom AI chips could make up 15% of the market by 2030, with Nvidia likely to dominate the rest 

🔗 Broadcom’s AI Outlook – McKinsey
🔗 Oracle’s Cloud Infrastructure Push – CNBC

Recent Earnings Recap: Beat But Still Fell

Nvidia topped estimates in its February 26 Q4 report:

• EPS: $0.89 (vs. $0.85 expected) 
• Revenue: $39.33B (vs. $38.1B forecast) 

Yet shares fell 8% the next day, as markets priced in export risk and geopolitical friction.

Top revenue regions:

• U.S.: 47% 
• Taiwan: 16% 
• China: 13% 

Notably, three clients now account for over 10% of total revenue.

Big Tech Spending: Still Nvidia’s Ace

• Amazon (AMZN): $105B AI data center spend (+27%) 
• Alphabet (GOOGL): $75B AI infrastructure investment (+57%) 
• Microsoft (MSFT): Slowing AI spend, but faces no chip shortages 

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy reaffirmed strong Nvidia ties:

“Most AI compute is Nvidia-powered, and we’ll continue that partnership for the foreseeable future.”

Final Thoughts: Is Nvidia a Sell Now?

With tariff uncertainty, a $5.5B export hit, and technical warning signs, Nvidia may be heading for a bumpy ride in the short term. Yet, its dominance in AI, manufacturing pivot, and Big Tech backing still make it a long-term contender.

For traders: watch the technicals and export updates closely.
 For long-term investors: the U.S. pivot and Blackwell roadmap may present a buying opportunity on dips.

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